March 27, 2011
Toyohashi, Japan
Hey guys, it has been a few days since my last update. I really had intended to write something sooner but life got a little crazy around here… I added some new people to the list so if you are interested in reading my previous emails, they should be all threaded below.
Disclaimer: This email is really long… You have been warned.
I ended up moving from Toyohashi to Nara on the 20th because the life in Tokyo didn't seem to be improving much. People were still working as if nothing had happened, Tokyo was still having planned power outages which was hindering public transportation.
I am sure everyone is tired of reading depressing news about the earthquake so I will try to summarize everything here.
Out of the 3625 publicly traded companies in Japan, 1597 have suffered some kind of damage in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami, out of which 1135 have taken direct hit. 33.1% had their building destroyed, 12.8% are facing major disruption to supplies and 12.1% had to stop their manufacturing line. Many of them have had to stop production to carry out safety checks and the prospect of rolling blackouts means further interruptions are likely over the coming weeks. I guess it goes without saying that Japan is about to face a major recession in the coming years even after excluding the effects of all the massive public debt amassed by the government.
So about radiation, I really don't think it will reach Tokyo at harmful levels. Contaminated food and tap water, however, have been circulating the country at some level. Every now and then we hear news saying that radiation has been found in tap water in greater Tokyo at twice the safety level. I have been told not to be obsessed about reading the news, but how can I, if these readings keep changing on an hourly basis?
People have been told not to eat 11 types of green leafy vegetables because of contamination worries, and food produced in Fukushima prefecture has been completely banned. Importers of Japanese products are also finding low levels of radiation in some food. The sea off the Fukushima Daiichi plant have soared to 1,250 times normal. The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, however, said that ocean currents will disperse radiation particles and so it will be very diluted by the time it gets consumed by fish and seaweed. Is there anyone checking this?
If someone comes up with some sort of watch-size portable radiation detecting device, that would make him/her the next billionaire.
I came back to Tokyo on the 25th because I had an important meeting with a client. Many shops here are operating on limited schedule with limited products. Supermarkets are completely out of basic supplies such as mineral water, toilet paper, instant noodle (and other instant aliments), batteries, portable radios, etc ad infinitum. I spent the day talking to different people to see how they were coping with the whole situation, and was a bit surprised to see that people have chosen to take a rather pragmatic approach. Although everyone seems to be distressed about the whole situation, no one really talks about what will and what could happen. People take overly-crowded trains and wait for the power outage to end as if nothing happened. They have completely replaced tap water with bottled mineral water, which has become extremely scarce. People are checking the news every-other-minute but no one ever comments on it. When meeting a group of people, they usually start the conversation by saying things like "someone has found out that a convenience store somewhere in the sticks of Tokyo still has supplies of mineral water"… Talking about water has become a common conversation starter.
One thing that surprised me is that everyone is very positive about Japan's future outlooks. When I ask what is going to happen to Japan, they invariably say that no matter what happens, they will just have to rebuild the country from ground up (this should make Naoto Kan really proud of his ppl :P). One problem I noticed, however, is that people are not willing to get involved in the "bigger picture". They believe that the country will be able to rebuild itself as long as they keep fulfilling their daily duties just like worker ants. While millions of people around the world are going out to the streets to voice their opinions about the future of nuclear energy (200K people in Germany alone!! -> http://bit.ly/h3a4qt), only 1550 people took the streets of Tokyo (http://bit.ly/gjCcEo). This makes me feel a bit uneasy about the future of the country.
As the world's chief nuclear inspector (as well as the Japanese PM) said, the country is still far from the end of the accident. While 153 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or above have been recorded in Fukushima and Ibaraki in 2010, there has been 352 recorded so far this year. This means that in less than 4 months, the region affected by the earthquake has already endured over twice the average of high-risk earthquakes. Searches continue with more than 27,100 people dead or missing in northeast Japan.
One other thing that makes me a little apprehensive about the whole situation is that the company responsible for handling the crippled nuclear power plant has a history of nuclear disaster cover-ups (http://bit.ly/hde7v0). None of the scientists or nuclear experts in the country were being consulted. If you are not tired of reading, here are some interesting articles about TEPCO…
Japan nuclear plant operator ignored tsunami warnings (http://bit.ly/h1vRzp)
Bungling, cover-ups define Japanese nuclear power (http://bit.ly/fCZbPM)
So currently, TEPCO engineers are STILL trying to stabilize the radioactive emanation from the nuclear plant by pumping out radioactive water after it was found in buildings housing three of the six reactors, raising the fear that the core's container could be damaged. On Thursday, three workers were taken to hospital from reactor No. 3 after stepping in water with radiation levels 10,000 times higher than usually found in a reactor. TEPCO made a formal apology to the three contaminated workers saying that they had told them to enter the turbine building despite knowing that the water in the building contained high-levels of radiation.
Here's a good article describing the current situation at the Fukushima Daiichi plant -> http://bit.ly/hOnJCj
Some people wanted my opinion about Japan's future. I believe the nuclear reactors, though never completely cleaned up and "sterilized", will be under control in a matter of weeks or months. As aforementioned, it is very unlikely that radiation is going to reach Tokyo at harmful levels so life here will be relatively unscathed. The problem I see moving forward, however, is power distribution. (I am going to try to explain here without writing too many numbers.) There is a reason why the power outages are only happening in the eastern side of Japan. Japanese powerlines have two different frequencies : 50Hz in the east (which includes Tokyo) and 60Hz in the west. These two frequencies are unable to coexist so the electricity produced in the western side of Japan cannot be used in the east. Electricity in Japan is comprised of about 60% thermal, 30% nuclear and 10% hydroelectric (TEPCO accounted for nearly 35 percent of Japan's electricity). Currently, with most of the nuclear and some thermal power plants at inoperable state, Eastern Japanese power companies can only produce about half of the energy consumed. People have been asked to conserve energy but that is clearly not going to cut. It is predicted that people are going to spend less electricity once it gets warmer, but summers are usually the worst time because of all the air-conditioners. Building new power plants can take years (usually about two years) and they need at least one year to run complete safety checkups (unless it's TEPCO who's in charge :P). The lack of power in Japan will definitely hinder progress and delay recovery.
In the midst of all the confusion, as I was starting to pack my belongings, I was approached by a researcher at Riken who asked me to do research with him. I have spent the past couple of days debating what to do...
The prank that life plays on you can be cruel sometimes…
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